Good Magic also captured the Eclipse Award for best 2-year-old male. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott will return with his first Derby contender since Hold Me Back in 2009 Calumet has entered long-shot Bravazo in hopes of getting the farm its first Derby winner since Forward Pass won by disqualification in 1968. Although Calumet produced two of American racing's 12 Triple Crown winners, the farm has not had a horse cross the finish line first in the Kentucky Derby since Tim Tam in 1958. Lukas has three Derby winners, but none since 1999. The 82-year-old trainer, whose last winner, Charismatic, went off to 30-1 odds, joked at the trainers' dinner earlier in the week that he has done some of his best work with long shots in the past. Bravazo is a 50-1 sh .
John Kaufmann 7 месяцев назад i think ENTICED is under the radar here. He has trained well, he definitely can handle a wet track & who says he can't get 10f? Checkout his entire pedigree on pedigree query. Most importantly? He won Churchill's richest race for 2yo's. I actually think though given the top company he has kept and never off the board if he gets his act together SOLOMINI, the other Baffert horse totally forgotten!
Bryant Bee 7 месяцев назад Horses like commanding curve and Looking at Lee were horses people threw in there,there was nothing to indicate a big race evidenced by them never winning another race,..ice box finished second to super saver,,it's a crapshoot picking exotics in a 20 horse field,,race flow,pace,jockey competence,just a horse feeling good that day..no science behind it at all
best dating kentucky derby longshot - Expert picks, longshots: How to bet Kentucky Derby 2018
After months of speculating, now it's time to place those 2018 Kentucky Derby bets! With what's billed as one of the most talented fields in years, Horse Racing Nation's staff gathered to make its selections and list some longshots. Post time is set for 6:50 p.m. ET Saturday at Churchill Downs, with NBC carrying the broadcast.
Jeffrey Byrnes, (@ ) Winner: #6 Good Magic On the board: #5 Audible, #9 Hofburg Longshot I like: #17 Solomini Analysis: Good Magic is coming along at the right time, and the Kentucky Derby will be his peak performance. A good post, Good Magic will get a ground saving trip, along with a good pace up front. As a 2-year-old, Good Magic didn't put it all together until his third start, a win in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. The Derby will be his third start of the year, and coming off his win in the Blue Grass, he has trained very impressively since arriving at Churchill, and he is ready to run the best race of his life in the Kentucky Derby.
Bryan Brinkmeyer, () Winner: #5 Audible On the board: #7 Justify, #14 Mendelssohn Longshot I like: #8 Lone Sailor Analysis: 2018 could be the most competitive field that I have ever seen. To make things more difficult it was also one of the friendliest post position draws for big name contenders that I can remember.
Justify is the best horse in the field but I’ll play Audible to beat him. Not picked but Good Magic could be sitting on a peak performance. Nick Costa, Winner: #6 Good Magic On the board: #11 Bolt d'Oro, #5 Audible Longshot I like: #12 Enticed Analysis: Good Magic fires his best in the big races, and there is no bigger contest than this one.
Bolt d’Oro is a multiple Grade 1 winner that is experienced, battle-tested, and regally bred. Audible turned in two wow performances in Florida in his preparation for this.
Enticed has won every other start and if the pattern continues, he’ll be wearing roses. Candice Curtis ( ) Winner: #12 Enticed On the board: #11 Bolt d'Oro, #14 Mendelssohn Longshot I like: #12 Enticed Analysis: I have been on Enticed's bandwagon since his 2-year-old debut.
The forgotten horse this year, he has had a fairly old-school prep schedule for the Derby. He started the year needing a race in Florida, won a nice prep in New York, and fought to a second-place finish in the Wood Memorial. This should have him sharp and battle-tested for the 20-horse Derby. Bolt D'Oro is the hardest-trying horse in the field, and if he was in any of the super trainers' barns, he would be among the favorites. His all-out battles with McKinzie and Justify may have emptied the tank, however.
Mendelssohn is a cipher, but he has been pointed for this race all year, unlike many UAE Derby winners who make the trip just because. I think he is strong enough to hit the board. Chip Gehrke, () Winner: #16 Magnum Moon On the board: #5 Audible, #4 Flameaway Longshot I like: #17 Solomini Analysis: You could run this race 10 times and have 10 different winners. It is that contentious. I like the No.
16 post for Magnum Moon, as he can eye his main rivals to his inside throughout. Audible figures to get a perfect stalking trip behind Promises Fulfilled and Flameaway. He, too, will be very tough here. Flameaway should have the lead turning for home. Don't be surprised if he wins this outright.
Solomini is a forgotten talent who has yet to get his act together at age 3. He stacks up well with these if he can run a clean race. Madison Jackson, () Winner: #7 Justify On the board: #14 Mendelssohn, #5 Audible Longshot I like: #9 Hofburg Analysis: Though it's hard to look past an undefeated winner of the Santa Anita Derby who is trained by Bob Baffert, there are a few I think could be right there at the finish with Justify. Mendelssohn certainly has the breeding to love a mile and a quarter on dirt, but Hofburg's closing in the Florida Derby makes me think he could do the same thing at Churchill.
Casey Laughter, ( ) Winner: #7 Justify On the board: #6 Good Magic, #18 Vino Rosso Longshot I like: #14 Mendelssohn Analysis: I had my heart set on Good Magic after seeing him at Keeneland, but here I am picking Justify after seeing the two on the track and realizing how much better Justify looks. He was a total professional.
Good Magic still looks good, but I think he is running for second. Vino and Mendelssohn are the two others I was very much impressed with physically. Averie Levanti, Winner: #18 Vino Rosso On the board: #5 Audible, #7 Justify Longshot I like: #20 Combatant Analysis: Vino Rosso is one of the few horses in the race bred for the distance.
He's improving at the right time, and he's one of the best looking horses at Churchill. Johnny V. choosing him over the other Pletchers surely helps my confidence. With that being said, take my on the board horses with a grain of salt, as I'm planning on including 10 horses underneath a trifecta. Reinier Macatangay, ( ) Winner: #7 Justify On the board: #14 Mendelssohn, #5 Audible Longshot I like: #8 Lone Sailor Analysis: Justify owns the best speed figures and the early turn of foot to stay out of trouble, but he does not need to engage Promises Fulfilled.
As for Mendelssohn, this is a different kind of UAE Derby winner who finally merits consideration because of his superb 18-length win and American breeding. Also, Audible has done nothing wrong in Florida and could take advantage if the leaders go too fast. Jasen Mangrum, () Winner: #7 Justify On the board: #11 Bolt d'Oro, #9 Hofburg Longshot I like: #9 Hofburg Analysis: Justify is the fastest horse in the race, period. Apollo Curse aside, he isn't a one-dimensional speed ball, 10 furlongs shouldn't be an issue, and has already handled an off track.
If it weren't for Justify, Bolt d'Oro should be your race favorite. While not crossing the finish first yet this year, he has run quicker than anyone else in the group. Hofburg has been training great, improving exponentially, and should relish the Derby distance. Olivia Newman, , Winner: #11 Bolt d'Oro On the board: #7 Justify, #18 Vino Rosso Longshot I like: #10 My Boy Jack Analysis: Bolt D’oro is the most battle-tested horse in the field.
I think his running style will set him up perfectly for this race. Justify and Vino Rosso will be looming in the stretch. Christine Oser ( ) Winner: #7 Justify On the board: #14 Mendelssohn, #6 Good Magic Longshot I like: #18 Vino Rosso Analysis: Although three races seems like little experience heading into the Derby, Justify gets my top pick. He's won all of his races in impressive fashion, left Bolt d'Oro chasing him the entire Santa Anita Derby, and he's put in longer works ahead of the 1 1/4 miles.
It's a tough field, but he's shown a lot of talent so far. Laura Pugh, () Winner: #7 Justify On the board: #11 Bolt d'Oro, #18 Vino Rosso Longshot I like: #9 Hofburg Analysis: The pace will be hot, but I don't believe Justify will be on it.
Instead I think he will sit in behind the leaders, getting the perfect stalking trip. Bolt D'Oro should get a similar one. The early speed will set it up for a couple closers to hit. Mary Dixon Reynolds, () Winner: #16 Magnum Moon On the board: #18 Vino Rosso, #7 Justify Longshot I like: #11 Bolt d'Oro Analysis: Undefeated Magnum Moon has not made any missteps all year and his gallop out in the Arkansas Derby made him look like he wont have any problem with the extra distance.
This is a derby with about 8 to 10 horses with real talent who could win if they get a good trip. Laurie Ross, () Winner: #18 Vino Rosso On the board: #5 Audible, #7 Justify Longshot I like: #10 My Boy Jack Analysis: With Vino Rosso, don’t like his one-run style, but if the pace is as hot as expected, then he’ll come along and has the chance to grab it. As for Audible, he’s doing what most Into Mischief babies can’t.
Could be the anomaly. With Justify, maybe he’s the second coming of American Pharoah, but there are too many negatives to stick him in win spot. Reminds me of Curlin. Every year, a stone closer gets up to nab a piece of the pie. My Boy Jack reminds me of Exaggerator. Jason Wood, , Winner: #7 Justify On the board: #18 Vino Rosso, #5 Audible Longshot I like: #8 Lone Sailor Analysis: Honestly, there are at least eight horses that could win this race on any given Saturday.
Justify simply looks like a beast on and off paper. I know this is far and away his toughest test, and I hate to pick a favorite in the Derby. But sometimes you just have to trust your gut. Brian Zipse, , Winner: #18 Vino Rosso On the board: #6 Good Magic, #11 Bolt d'Oro Longshot I like: #9 Hofburg Analysis: I'm looking for a strong and contested pace in this year's Derby, so I am going with the best late runner in the field, and I believe that's Vino Rosso.
He's the one horse in the field, more than any other, that I believe wants all of 10 furlongs.
By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: Anyone that has ever played the trifecta or superfecta in the Kentucky Derby knows that finding live longshots is the key to hitting those bets. With two exceptions, every Kentucky Derby since 2001 has seen at least one horse at odds of 20-1 or higher finish in the superfecta, and having more than one huge longshot hit the board has not been uncommon. As a result, it can pay to think outside the box when handicapping the Derby in an effort to uncover live longshots that can finish in the top four.
Finding the right ones isn't easy-they're longshots for a reason!-but it's always a fun and challenging task that can pay off in a big way if you're right. Here are three longshots that I feel have a chance to hit the board in the 2016 Kentucky Derby: Majesto Although Majesto lost the first four starts of his career, he ran very well in three of those races while holding his own against proven stakes horses like Destin and Gettysburg.
He finally broke his maiden in his fifth start, defeating the next-out maiden winners Dig Deep and Street Gray (Dig Deep also won a stakes race last week), and off that promising effort, Majesto was entered in the Florida Derby, where finished a strong second behind the unbeaten champion Nyquist.
Majesto's Florida Derby effort was particularly noteworthy because while he did save ground throughout the race, he did so while racing over by far the wettest part of the track. Rain throughout the afternoon had left large puddles along the rail at Gulfstream, but Majesto showed no hesitation sloshing through them, and he stayed on gamely in the homestretch to finish just 3 ¼ lengths behind Nyquist. To me, Majesto looks like a rapidly-improving colt that is heading into the Kentucky Derby in great shape.
He's already proved that he doesn't mind racing inside of horses, a good asset in the Derby, and his pedigree-by Tiznow out of the Unaccounted For mare Unacloud, the dam of 2013 Arkansas Derby (gr. I) winner Overanalyze-suggests that Majesto will have no trouble with the distance of the Derby.
It's also worth noting that Majesto has already run three races at nine furlongs, which is rare to see in a Derby contender. He may not win the Derby, but I think Majesto has a strong chance to finish in the superfecta at around 30-1. Suddenbreakingnews After winning the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) by 2 ¾ lengths with a visually spectacular late rally, Suddenbreakingnews had slightly troubled trips in the Rebel Stakes (gr.
II) and Arkansas Derby (gr. I), having to wait behind horses in the former race and having to rally very wide in the latter. But with the exception of the Rebel Stakes, he's never finished worse than second in any of his races and has adapted to a wide variety of pace scenarios.
In terms of pedigree, he's by Mineshaft-sire of 2010 Derby runner-up Ice Box-out of a mare by Belmont Stakes winner Afleet Alex, who finished third in the 2005 Derby and sired the 2010 Travers Stakes winner Afleet Express. He seems to make his move in the homestretch as opposed to the far turn, so the long homestretch at Churchill should be to his liking.
If the Derby pace is fast, expect to see him gobbling up ground in the final furlong to contend for a spot in the superfecta. My Man Sam He had a somewhat difficult trip in the Blue Grass Stakes, getting a very wide trip after starting from post fourteen, but despite rallying extremely wide at the top of the stretch, he finished strongly in the final two furlongs to finish second, beaten just 1 ¾ lengths by the talented Brody's Cause.
As a deep closer-as opposed to just a closer-My Man Sam hasn't really shown any early speed at all, and much like Suddenbreakingnews, he does his best running in the homestretch rather than on the far turn.
But he's already achieved a lot for a horse with just four starts under his belt, and one more step forward could put him in the hunt for finishing in the superfecta. Now it's your turn! Which longshots do you like in the Kentucky Derby? ***** To help simplify the process of choosing and keeping track of everyone's prime horse selections in our 2016 Road to the Kentucky Derby Handicapping Challenge, I would like to ask everyone to please submit their prime choice each week by leaving a special comment on the for the contest.
This will greatly reduce the chances of any prime horse selections getting overlooked, and will also make it simpler to double-check the standings. Thanks, and enjoy the racing! ***** J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, blogger, videographer, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast.
A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite. He is the founder of the horse racing website .
TCI: Kentucky Derby 144 Picks Show - 05/04/2018